Why do the jobs numbers get revised?
our markets and policymakers want data NOW but employer data dribbles in over months
1st estimate is based on the 75% of employers who respond promptly
Updates occur as more data rolls in: 95% response rate by final revision 1/N
In positive job news, a side gig job has opened for Trump's golf caddy.
Reminds me of how my boss wants interval level data on a daily basis and I have to constantly remind him that until the data is properly correlated, anything we read into it is subject to change.
I have heard that the response rate has declined in recent years, which has created more uncertainty in the initial estimate numbers.
That may explain why the revisions this month were bigger than they normally are.
There may be some underlying issues here.
-Not defending Trump at all
And it would make sense that firms doing above average, for them, hiring or firing, would be late in filing their reports. Hence, big swings in turbulent times.
Just like the Covid pandemic, the jobs numbers must be a hoax. Stop counting. That's the solution.
Thanks for the intelligent perspective that could be posted on TRUTH social or Fox News ! Those with intelligent brains understand adjustments to initial ideas based on further information.
Religion always comes before money. America needs an exorcism
Trump is so ignorant, he makes the same stupid mistake with early, not yet complete statistics that he makes with elections. I was surprised to learn that I had always attached the words evil and genius before Dubya showed me I was wrong, but Trump is the epitome of evil stupidity, a record forever.
BLS could wait to report jobs growth until they hit that 95% response rate months later
But then we wouldn't have an any estimate of June jobs until August
Tradeoff is btw faster vs more accurate estimates
2/ N
Very helpful, thanks. But surely someone has studied any systematic variations between initial and later estimates, no? I found this online. It's only for the last year, but it does suggest some consistent over-prediction in '25, and less consistency in '24. infogram.com/jobs-revisio...
Change in initial job estimate from June 2024 to June 2025
Appreciate the explanation. :)
plus, in boom times, the slowest reporters are probably those who are sesperately hiring to keep up. So we revise upwards. And in recession, the ones late to report just laid off people so they have no capacity for reporting. So we revised downward.
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Given Trump's tariff policies and his constant TACOing, businesses are having a devil of a time with head count. One month, they may be over-hiring bc they need to import more to get ahead of the tariffs. Next month, they let everyone go.
I’ve been a responder to BLS reports on behalf of my 2 small businesses for years.Sometimes I get to them right away.Other times it can take weeks especially if I happen to miss an email reminder. I tend to be on top of things so I can only imagine the thousands of small business owners that are not
Does the estimate come from only W-2 jobs and not 1099 jobs? If so, it strays from actual work.
