2️⃣ 1% (if confirmed) would at least be less than the 10% increase in October 2024, so energy's contribution to the annual inflation rate will still fall (albeit not by as much as previously expected) (2/2)
www.cornwall-insight.com/press-and-me...
Julian Jessop
@julianhjessop.bsky.social
611 Followers
254 Following
Independent economist. Likes charts. IEA Economics Fellow. Schools speaker. Diploma in Law. FRSA. COYG. I fund myself. More on website at www.julianhjessop.com. Also on substack at https://substack.com/@julianhjessop
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FYI, Cornwall Insight is now forecasting a small increase (1%) in the Ofgem cap on domestic energy bills in October. Obviously not good news, but note...
1️⃣ this is mainly due to the expansion of the Warm Home Discount for more vulnerable households (which is paid for by other customers)... (1/2)
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I've turned my comments on the potential "Oasis bump" in the July inflation data into a blog... 🤓
(No prize for spotting the 15 song titles, sorry!)
julianhjessop.substack.com/p/will-the-j...
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"A clear, evidence-based take on the logic and pitfalls of ‘reciprocal’ tariffs — why it appeals politically but fails economically."
Happy to share this decent piece written by an undergraduate I met recently (there is hope!)... 🤓
uclrethinkingeconomics.com/2025/06/23/a...
#economics101
https://uclrethinkingeconomics.com/2025/06/23/a-c…
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Good to see Yvette Cooper making the case again for proscribing 'Palestine Action’... 🎯👍
observer.co.uk/news/opinion...
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Are "nearly 50%" of Tesco's workers on Universal Credit? 🤔
This claim has gone viral, but I can't find any evidence to support it.
In fact, based on sector data and what Tesco pays, it seems unlikely that the true figure is more than 20% (mostly part-timers).
Can anyone clarify either way? 🙏
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Chart of Day 🤓
The latest University of Michigan survey suggests that US consumers still have a far better grasp of the impact of tariffs on inflation than Trump and his advisors... 🤔
source and more: data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php...
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FYI, I've turned my comments on today's UK GDP data into a blog... 🤔
(TL;DR - some better headlines for Rachel Reeves, but nothing here to suggests that the economic foundations are getting any better)
open.substack.com/pub/julianhj...
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Ps. try this...
www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/...
https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/Public/Home/PressRelease/11c24cf457044d5bbf797425e3b780b5
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Yes, fears of a global trade war are easing, but US tariffs will still be a lot higher, and confidence is still low...
