8503 Followers
25 Following
Research fellow at National Institute for Strategic Studies under UA President, senior analyst at UA NGO “Come back alive”; all ideas tabled here are private position
Worst moment in UA-US bilateral relations since its inception as 🇺🇦 is waging war for its very existence.
How can we build mutually beneficial relations with US under this administration if 🇺🇦 President is not heard literally&UA rightful interests are disregarded in real time?
Btw what “mutual concessions by UA&RU for peace” as Trump team said mean in case of RU? There is unfortunately no specifics what RU shall cease to ask out of UA - only hints about what UA might be forced to sacrifice.
Geopolitical experiments paid by blood of Ukrainian Nation.
Otherwise RU would just press its relative advantage as far as it can. Hoping in meantime to undermine fully moral inside&outside Ukraine to force its maximalist terms of settlement.
End of thread 🧵
Thus war dynamics&correlation of forces for foreseeable future unfortunately exclude any quick settlement based on mutual compromises as Marco Rubio hints all along. First UA hand needs to be strengthened to force a major strategic reassessment among RU leadership.
In general RU leadership proceed from assumption that RU can sustain current casualty intensive military strategy for at least 1-1,5 years. Which translates into RU maximalist pol demands which equal to UA surrender. RU is so overconfident that it doesn’t hide desire to crush UA.
With exception of UA Kursk offensive RU has possessed overall battlefield initiative since Oct 2023. In 2024 despite staggering loses RU managed to occupy 3,6K square km of UA territory exploiting UA C2&personnel problems, gap in US aid&by some tactical&technological adjustments.
Thus far war&strategic dynamics is far cry from situation when both sides are so exhausted to be ready for compromise deal given no one ability to advance further quickly and in major scale. Quite the opposite - RU operates on the assumption that it can improve its bargaining power.
All recent statements by Secretary of State Marco Rubio regarding UA-RU war are based on the misguided assumption that with this war dynamics situation is ripe for compromises and durable settlement. References to stalemate are best proof of this misguided idea. Thread 🧵
All these commemorations related to WWII end are just meaningless show as there is a war going on for 11th year which a kind of appeasement stretched in time.
As people would reiterate “Never again” mantra there is zero courage&leadership to prevent a catastrophe in making.
After a 1 year pause it seems that it’s a high time to come back to this back up channel of communications.