paulginva.bsky.social profile picture

Paul Graf

@paulginva.bsky.social

3885 Followers

1747 Following

Retired lawyer. Moderate. Dog lover, cat tolerator. Grandfather. Vietnam vet. History, international relations, national security, high-profile litigation, economics, and a little politics.

  4. paulginva.bsky.social profile picture

    Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social

    Interesting look at a US exporter losing sales overseas not bc of retaliatory tariffs or higher input costs but because his customers simply don't want to buy American any more.

    In Upstate New York, gear manufacturer Gear Motions began raising prices to offset tariffs earlier this year. Although imports make up just 5 percent of the company's business, trade uncertainty has complicated just about every part of the firm's operations, President Dean Burrows said. The company's gears are used in air compressors, superchargers and car transmissions. Anxious customers are buying less. And it has gotten harder to sell his U.S.-made products overseas; international inquiries have dried up by about 50 percent, he said, as buyers in other countries look for ways to bypass American manufacturers. "We're a 140-year-old company and have survived many ups and downs, but the uncertainty right now is what's unprecedented," Burrows said. "We have precision gears on the ocean, coming from Italy, and I still don't know whether I'll have to pay a 15 percent tariff, or 27.5 percent. But either way, we have no choice: We'll pay it, and we'll pass it on."
    1
  6. paulginva.bsky.social profile picture

    Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social

    Reply to paulginva.bsky.social

    loan relief period expired and delinquencies started appearing on credit reports.

    Individuals aged 50 and over saw serious delinquencies surge to a massive 18%.

    Furthermore, ~14% of borrowers aged 40–49 and ~8% of those aged 18–29 have transitioned into serious delinquency,

    1
  7. paulginva.bsky.social profile picture

    Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social

    The student debt crisis is getting worse:

    13% of student loans transitioned into delinquency in Q2 2025, the highest share on record.

    Transitions into serious delinquency spiked to 13%, the highest since data began in 2003.

    Delinquencies have skyrocketed since Q4 2024 as the student

    The provided graph illustrates the "Transition into Serious Delinquency (90+) for Student Loans by Age" from the first quarter of 2004 (04:Q1) to the first quarter of 2025 (25:Q1), based on data from the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax. Key observations from the graph: Pre-2020 Trends: Before 2020, older age groups (30-39, 40-49, and 50+) generally exhibited higher rates of serious delinquency compared to the youngest age group (18-29), with the 30-39 and 40-49 age groups often showing the highest percentages of balance in serious delinquency. Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic: A significant and sharp decline in student loan delinquencies across all age groups is evident around 2020-2021, likely reflecting the implementation of federal student loan payment pauses and other relief measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Post-Pandemic Resurgence: Following the end of these relief measures, there's a dramatic increase in serious delinquency rates for all age groups in 2025:Q1, particularly for the 30-39, 40-49, and 50+ age groups, which reach unprecedented levels on the graph. Age Group Dynamics: While the 18-29 age group also experiences a rise in delinquencies post-pandemic, the increase is proportionally more pronounced and reaches higher absolute levels for the older age cohorts, especially those in their 30s, 40s, and 50s and above.
    1
  9. paulginva.bsky.social profile picture

    Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social

    Reply to paulginva.bsky.social

    ▶️ Command module pilot for Apollo 8, the first manned mission to ever orbit the moon; read from the book of Genesis during a live radio broadcast on Christmas Eve

    ▶️ Commander of Apollo 13 mission; rationed water, endured freezing temperatures, improvised a CO2 scrubber using cardboard and duct

    1
  10. paulginva.bsky.social profile picture

    Paul Graf @paulginva.bsky.social

    Rest in peace to Captain Jim Lovell, one of the finest Americans our nation has ever produced.

    ▶️ Naval Academy graduate and military test pilot

    ▶️ First person to fly into space four times

    ▶️ 14 days in orbit as part of Gemini 7

    ▶️ Captain of Gemini 12 (Buzz Aldrin served as pilot)

    The image shows James A. Lovell Jr., the commander of the Apollo 13 mission, who recently passed away at the age of 97. Apollo 13 Mission: Lovell led the three-man crew of Apollo 13, which faced a near-catastrophic explosion in space in 1970 but successfully returned to Earth due to the crew's ingenuity and ground control's support. Other Missions: He was one of NASA's most traveled astronauts in the agency's early years, flying four times on Gemini 7, Gemini 12, Apollo 8, and Apollo 13. Apollo 8 Significance: Lovell considered Apollo 8, the first crewed mission to orbit the moon, to be the highlight of his NASA career, where he helped pilot the spacecraft and spot the iconic "Earthrise" photograph. Post-NASA Career: After retiring from NASA in 1973, Lovell pursued a career in private business, including years in the telecommunications industry and running a restaurant. Legacy and Portrayal: His story, particularly the Apollo 13 mission, was immortalized in the 1995 film "Apollo 13," where he was portrayed by Tom Hanks.
    1