Stagflation in some form is coming. The trillion-dollar question is whether inflation becomes entrenched paulkrugman.substack.com/p/the-econom...
The Economics of Stagflation, Part II
What will follow the Trump shock?
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Interesting interview with Tom Barkin on @bloomberg.com Odd Lots explaining his holistic understanding of inflation, but I don't get how tariffs would be '1 time' inflation bumps if they occur randomly, universally and spread over time due to diff inventory and POTUS moods. Expectations will change
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Question. Has there ever been a business that succeeded by cutting expenses? Don't businesses rely on revenues to measure success?
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There’s a part of me that thinks he’s doing this to force lower interest rates for his billionaire oligarchs.
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It’s already entrenched. Zero prices are coming down on ANYTHING. Every week several staples are up significantly and stay there.
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Won't it be even worse bc of lying about inflation rates?
SSI payments won't remotely keep up with inflation if they lie about CPI
And what about I Bonds? The interest rate is supposed to be based on inflation rates - if it's really 5% but they say it's only 1.2%, can i-bond holders sue?
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Labor was far more powerful in the 1970s and management was far less able or inclined to rebuff the demands for wage increases. Not so today. Probably reduces chances of inflation becoming entrenched but simply makes workers and retirees even poorer...
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I thought the smart money was saying that there would essentially be a one-time price increase due to tariffs, not ongoing price increases.
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Suppose the 2023-2024 greedflation hypothesis is correct. Would one of the reasons for the seemingly muted inflationary response to tariffs so far be that firms are reducing their margins to avoid losing sales? If so, then is it possible the tariffs may somehow be less inefficient than we think?
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I’m interested in exports…multiple anecdotal stories of foreign consumers and business looking to cut ties with American sources of supply…what sectors most affected and when
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I don’t get it.
If businesses think they can increase prices and maximise profits, why didn’t they do it before ?
If prices go up, and we don’t have jobs, won’t the economy shrink because the goods stay on the shelf?
Won’t tax revenue drop? Won’t tariff revenue disappear?
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"The ... deportation policies are creating a significant inflationary shock" Maybe you explained this and I missed it, but how do the deportations cause inflation?
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Don’t I know it.
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This is the worst possible thing for retirees. Inflation eating away the value of your money, plus high unemployment with stagnant economic growth lowering returns from stock market. Traditional economic tools, such as by the Fed, are unable to fix it.
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The zillion dollar question is how much richer will the rich end up?
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Trump has removed realistic reporting of labour figures. He's forcing out reasonable people from the Fed, forcing lower interest rates. He plans to give out "gifts" to the MAGA in cheques, increasing inflation. This ain't gonna be pretty.
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Remember 2008 under Bush?
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Corporations raised prices during Covid to reward their investors. I know the stock market isn't the economy but it is so heavily weighted toward Silicon Valley and AI it is asking for trouble. Their love of crypto is another disaster waiting to happen.
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It’s actually the economics of Fiat currency. And what does Fiat mean? FAKE. Donald Trump‘s thinking is brains in the poo poo shoot. #GOP knows. Breaking Gay App at RNC.
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Is this a symptom of the broader economy? www.investopedia.com/las-vegas-in...
Las Vegas Indicator Flashing Warning Sign: Fewer Visitors May Imply Trouble For US Economy
Las Vegas has seen a 7% decline in visitors through the first half of this year, a potential warning sign for the economy due to the discretionary nature of spending that make up much of the city's to...
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The corps will never pull back once they’ve gotten the public to accept their increases.
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i hope is not going to be a re-edit of those years…
“This means that $1 in 1979 had the same purchasing power as about $1.43 in 1984. Put another way, the dollar lost about 30% of its domestic value over those 5 years.”
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The more Trump tampers with the Fed, the more likely we will see stagflation. We had a period like this in the late 70s and early 80s. In 81 the 30-year mortgage rate was about 18%. By 83, the unemployment rate was 9.6%.
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The word “inflation” and any mention of it in governmental reports and data will be deemed illegal and stricken from such “narratives”…at least until inflation is reduced by at least 1000%
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The scary thing is that by the time the Fed has to take action, it will be under a Trump chairperson along with several new members. Don't forsee the Fed being able to dish out the needed remedies while Trump is in office.
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The big question for much of the rest of the world, it seems to me, is how much stagflation in the US would bleed past the borders and cause problems elsewhere. Fungible commodity prices should not be very affected, I guess, or might even fall from reduced demand. US demand for imports will fall.
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Well, I don't see Trump and Republicans rising to the self-inflicted moment here
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This will be worse than the great depression. We already know we are heading into stagflation. There will be no letting up of the factors that caused it: tariffs & expelling brown people. There will be cover-ups on the data. Political pressure doubling-down. Crypto is rising over USD. Propaganda
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But will we even know officially if the administration jukes the numbers? (We’ll know unofficially because our banks accounts will wither!)
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And the Fed knows it but can't say it: bsky.app/profile/lill...
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Biden got blamed for Trump inflation. Next Dem president will be blamed for Trump depression.
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Authoritarianism is bad for the economy? Who knew?
