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College football & the NFL Draft @ Sharp Football Analysis | Previously: ESPN Stats & Info, Bleacher Report, numberFire
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Sneaky good game between Illinois and Duke, two darkhorse playoff contenders.
Illini got a lot of offseason hype for returning so many starters, including the entire offensive line.
However... Illinois ranked 120th in opponent-adjusted pressure rate allowed last year.
More on this game here:
We give you our college football prediction for Duke vs. Illinois when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 2 of the 2025 NCAA season.
Albany (a 4-8 FCS school) pressured Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski 44% of the time last week.
Most of the pressures were Gronowski's fault for holding the ball too long.
Can he figure it out in time to upset Iowa State on Saturday?
More stats in my game preview here:
We give you our college football prediction for Iowa State vs. Iowa when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 2 of the 2025 NCAA season.
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That's no excuse for Belichick. He was unprepared. He had all offseason to study TCU and they didn't do anything unexpected in that game.
But I do think UNC looks much better moving forward with a bunch of more traditional offenses coming up on the schedule.
Everyone (myself included) criticized Belichick for being unprepared for TCU. But as I wrote last week, that was predictable bc of TCU's scheme
Charlotte's scheme is more traditional
Charlotte RBs ran into stacked box at a 64% rate last week
That plays into Belichick's hand. Expect a bounce back
Check out this from my TCU/UNC preview.
Belichicks are trying to play an outdated NFL defense at the CFB level. And it's predictably getting eviscerated tonight by an innovative offensive scheme.
They had all offseason to learn how to defend TCU's offense and didn't make any adjustments.
Obviously Clemson can win the ACC still (after all, they did it last year with basically the same team).
But it's impossible to take them seriously as a contender to make a deep playoff run when you see trends like this.
Dating back to 2016, six of Clemson's 10 lowest pressure rates have come since the start of the 2024 season
2024 Wake - 15.2% 2024 Texas - 17.2% 2025 LSU - 17.5% 2024 Louisville - 20.6% 2024 Georgia - 22.2% 2024 SMU - 22.2%
Basically when they play a good team (or Wake?) the pass rush disappears
All week leading up to the LSU game there was talk about Clemson's defense and its great pass rush.
In 2024, Clemson ranked 102nd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate.
Then they posted a 17.9% pressure rate vs LSU.
Just bc you have a couple future pros, does not mean you have a good pass rush.
All week leading up to the LSU game there was talk about Clemson's defense and its great pass rush.
In 2024, Clemson ranked 102nd in opponent-adjusted pressure rate.
Then they posted a 17.9% pressure rate vs LSU.
Just bc you have a couple future pros, does not mean you have a good pass rush.
John Mateer had the 3rd worst sack rate vs pressure last year.
Potentially problematic, based on these opponent-adjusted numbers from Sports Info Solutions:
Oklahoma: ranked 107th in pressure rate allowed Michigan: ranked 6th in pressure rate generated
More stats in my matchup preview here:
We give you our college football prediction for Oklahoma vs. Michigan when betting against the spread, breaking down Week 2 of the 2025 NCAA season.
This is a surprisingly entertaining Week 1 NFL game. I feel like it’s usually such a sloppy mess, barely a step above preseason.