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Jennifer N. Victor

@jenvictor.bsky.social

16417 Followers

2504 Following

Political Scientist at George Mason U. studying US politics, congressional networks, parties, campaign finance, and other broken systems. Cat person, dog owner. Take my class: https://shorturl.at/T8ten Read me: https://substack.com/@misofact

  1. Emory University is on lockdown as police respond to an active shooting near campus.

    Students are being urged to “RUN, HIDE, FIGHT.” This is NOT what the American college experience should be. Our hearts are with Emory as we await more information.

    There is a large police presence at Emory Point near the Emory University campus and the main campus of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

    LIVE UPDATES: Active shooter reported on Emory University Atlanta campus

    There is a large police presence at Emory Point near the Emory University campus and the main campus of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

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  3. The entire business model of R1 public universities rests on 4 revenue sources:

    1. Federal grants
    2. Private gifts/endowments
    3. Tuition (esp. from foreign students)
    4. State $

    For decades, 📈 in 1-3 offset a secular 📉 in 4. Now, 1 & 3 are being decimated & 4 ain't coming back. The math is clear.

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  4. There's going to be a significant undercount anyway because by 2030, everyone will be so terrified from five years of disappearances and torture that they won't respond to the Census Bureau even if it tried to count them.

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  5. The aspects of machine politics that apply are:

    • Party is indistinguishable from the government ✅
    • Government jobs are distributed as spoils based on loyalty, not merit. ✅
    • The party/govt head is a boss and runs a tight, hierarchical ship; dissenters are booted. ✅
    • The machine enriches itself ✅

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  6. FWIW, @leedrutman.bsky.social has an excellent piece out today that puts this into appropriate and helpful historical perspective. I also think @smotus.bsky.social 's piece earlier this week is useful on this topic. I still want more leaders demanding reforms leedrutman.substack.com/p/what-the-a...

    And why reform might be closer than you think

    What the Apportionment Act of 1842 tells us about today's gerrymandering wars

    And why reform might be closer than you think

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  7. Just in case it’s not already clear that ICE is a white supremacist thug army, Homeland Security is recruiting with a “defend your culture” slogan.

    Serve your country! Defend your culture!
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  8. An important nuance from @smotus.bsky.social on the firestorm topic I controversially engaged with earlier this week. Gerrymandering as a triggered consequence to another state's gmander is v different from gmandering to fix the game. Policy motivations matter a lot open.substack.com/pub/smotus/p...

    The Democrats also doing mid-decade redistricting would be chaos. It's also the only way out of this situation.

    The case for Democratic recklessness, redux

    The Democrats also doing mid-decade redistricting would be chaos. It's also the only way out of this situation.

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  9. Reality check. Headlines describe Trump approval: "crashing", "record low", "major decline". These are driven by cherry picking single polls The polling average HAS shown a decline from Jan but nothing that justifies "crashing". Apr low, small recovery, recent slip Now 43.6-52.1

    Chart shows steady decline in Trump approval but not sharp drops often described in headlines.
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