Thank you Jennifer!
Semih Çakır
@mascakir.bsky.social
1308 Followers
1286 Following
Political scientist at University of Vienna. Previously at University of Montreal - I study polarisation, partisanship and democratic citizenship. www.semihcakir.com
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Thank you and glad you love it!
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Congratulations! 🎉 Looking forward to the outputs already!
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Full article (OPEN ACCESS):
Do voters and non-voters differ in their policy preferences? | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core
Do voters and non-voters differ in their policy preferences?
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So what's the takeaway?
✅Good news: Voters and non-voters usually share similar policy preferences.
⚠️Bad news: When turnout is low, even small differences can introduce bias.
🗳️Overall: Low turnout isn't always a disaster for this specific question, but it is far from ideal.
10/10
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When turnout is low, the electorate reflects regular voters' preferences.
Higher turnout brings peripheral voters into the mix and reduces this bias.
Perpetual non-voters also differ, but they are usually a smaller group, so they introduce less bias overall.
9/10
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Moreover, using panel data from the UK (@britishelectionstudy.com), I examine policy preferences of three voter types:
1️⃣Regular voters: they vote consistently 2️⃣Peripheral voters: they vote intermittently 3️⃣Perpetual non-voters: they almost never vote
They differ in their policy preferences. 8/10
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Bias that disparities induce ultimately depends on turnout level. Biases are stronger when turnout is lower.
This is also why compulsory voting might make sense! 7/10
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Nevertheless, when differences do emerge, they are not trivial.
Using Cohen's d, most significant differences (in black) can be considered small but meaningful. 6/10
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But, here's the thing: Disparities are not the norm.
At the survey level, voters and non-voters usually hold similar policy views. Most differences are sporadic and do not reach statistical significance. 5/10
