I’m not trying to be antagonistic but that’s literally not what I said.

My view is that LD will take seats off Tories, and Lab will lose seats to Reform (if it stays its current trajectory). Reform will of course rinse what remains of the Tories.

Labour-LD pact, Reform official opposition.

Well, let’s hope you’re right and I’m wrong then, eh?

Voting has changed. MP’s are getting elected on much lower % of the vote than previously. The same dynamics that got us a Labour majority can also work in Reforms favour.

I’ve also been around a while, and I’m frankly not so confident as you.

The LD are basically what stands between Farage and Downing St.

Tories are in (seemingly irreversible) decline, and Labour aren’t about to win another majority.

Best hope right now is a Labour-LD coalition govt that holds Reform at bay.

But until they squash Reform they’ll always be a danger.

Farage can be prevented from becoming PM if Labour is willing to take the fight to him and hawk how he would actually be a disaster for the country.

He’s there for the taking, but then there’s you exclaiming that only on this issue does Farage rise or fall?!

Talk about irresponsible media…!

This is how it happens. Little by little we normalise that which previously would’ve been unthinkable, as Farage succeeds in moving the acceptable window of debate.

I’m genuinely scared for the future of this country. We need to remember that Farage absolutely does not speak for the majority.

To be fair he goes into more detail in further replies on that thread and while I think he’s wrong he at least backs it up further.

But he’s still wrong.

Completely agree. But part of the reason Remain lost was because Leave was willing to tell stories (lies) that told people what they wanted to hear, and so they didn’t care about objective facts.

The same will happen here if people blindly assume simply fact of the GFA is enough to stop Farage.

But all that’s a story we can tell. That’s what we need to be pushing, as a narrative.

My point is that the GFA alone will not save us, and anyone who puts their faith in just the GFA standing in Farage’s way is in for a colossal shock.

This is a good reminder that the GFA alone will not keep us in the ECHR.

Farage, as @davidallengreen.bsky.social has eloquently pointed out, knows how tell a story.

The dry facts of the GFA will not survive that story.

Farage is there for the taking, if we can only tell a better, happier story.

Don’t bother.

Just do not bother.

I generally like Nolan’s stuff, but this was some self-indulgent waffle.